Opinion
Nothing matters for interest rates now except US tariffs and trade war. Nothing
Aug 9
Opinion
In the time since Donald Trump's tariff announcement Thursday, low-fee mortgages have fallen below 4%
Aug 5
Opinion
The Fed will struggle to explain the need for more interest rate cuts after Wednesday's expected reductionape
Jul 31
Opinion
The odds are against the June plan, no matter what it is, it will be likely to raise the cost of borrowing or exclude segments from credit
Jun 10
Opinion
The stock market is easily excited by good economic news, and later considers consequences
Nov 9
Opinion
It's too early to start talking about stagflation, but a yield curve inversion is becoming more and more possible
Jun 30
Opinion
We’re not saying when we’re going higher because we don’t know, but mark your calendars for June 13, 2018 for the day the Fed flipped from stimulus to leaning against the economy.
Jun 15
Opinion
We can hope that the tax bill was so badly crafted that it does not stimulate, but rather just lines the pockets of the lucky
Jun 8
Will rates fall more? Sometimes the table is set for deeper, but this time take the chicken in your hand!
May 29
Opinion
In a globalized world, the Fed tightens for all
May 19
Opinion
An old friend used to say that the Fed’s job was to carry an immensely valuable crystal orb balanced on a flat silver tray without edges, while refereeing a hockey game
May 4
The Fed has already made cash the most expensive in ten years, but no sector reports that loans are harder to get
Apr 20
Opinion
Not a lot of sellers will play, and worse: housing markets can plod along in predictable fashion for years and then... stop.
Apr 19
Opinion
Explaining the stock tumble after real estate giant's big iBuyer announcement
Apr 17
Opinion
The dominant shows in progress involve the stock market, the tariff announcement and the possibility of trade war, and a tough week for technology
Mar 23
Opinion
The Fed's inflation forecasts (implicitly wages also) have failed ever since the recovery began in 2010
Mar 9
10-year Treasury note has nearly doubled in 18 months. If it breaks 3%, expect mortgages to hit 5%.
Feb 16
Opinion
If we have big upside volatility, we must expect downside to follow
Feb 6
Opinion
What's happening with interest rates, global business and the stock market
Feb 2
Opinion
What's happening with interest rates, global business and the stock market
Jan 12